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Showing posts with label Can-We-Ready-To-The-next-outbreak?. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Can-We-Ready-To-The-next-outbreak?. Show all posts

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Bill Gates, Can-We-Ready-To-The-next-outbreak?

When I was a child;

When I was a child, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. That why we had a barrel-like this down in our basement, crammed with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were alleged to go downstairs, hunker down, and dine out of that barrel.

 Bill Gates, Can-We-Ready-To-The-next-outbreak?

Today the best risk of worldwide catastrophe doesn't appear as if this. Instead, it's like this. If anything kills over 10 million people within the next few decades, its presumably to be a highly infectious virus instead of a war. Not missiles, but microbes.

Now, a part of the rationale for this is often that we've invested an enormous amount in nuclear deterrents. But we've actually invested little or no during a system to prevent a plague. Were not ready for the subsequent epidemic. Let's check out Ebola.I'm sure all of you examine it within the newspaper, many tough challenges.

Polio Eradication.

I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to trace polio eradication. And as you check out what went on, the matter was that there was a system that did not work tolerably, the matter was that we did not have a system in the least. In fact, there some pretty obvious key missing pieces. We did not have a gaggle of epidemiologists able to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread.

The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and that they were extremely inaccurate. We did not have a medical team able to go. We did not have how to prepare people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did an excellent job of orchestrating volunteers. But however, we were far slower than we should always are be getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And an outsized epidemic would require us to possess many thousands of workers.

There was nobody there to seem at treatment approaches.No one to seem at the diagnostics.No one to work out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to guard them. But that was never tried. So there were tons that were missing. And this stuff is really a worldwide failure. 

WHO is funded;

The WHO is funded to watch epidemics, but to not do this stuff I talked about. Now, within the movies, it's quite different. There is a gaggle of handsome epidemiologists able to go, they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood. The failure to organize could allow the subsequent epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than EbolaLets to check out the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were within the three West African countries. 

These three reasons why it didn't spread more. 

1. The first is that there were tons of heroic work by the doctors. They found the people and that they prevented more infections.

2. The second is that the nature of the virus. Ebola doesn't spread through the air. And by the time you're contagious, most of the people are so sick that they are bedridden.

3. it didn't get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into tons of more urban areas, the case numbers would are much larger.

So next time, we'd not be so lucky. You can have an epidemic where people feel tolerably while they're infections that they get on a plane or they are going to a market. The source of the virus might be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it might be bioterrorism. So there are things that might literally make things a thousand times worse.

Spanish Flu;

In fact, let's check out a model of an epidemic spread through the air, just like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here what would happen: it might spread throughout the planet very, very quickly. And you'll see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. 

Our Responsibility;

So this is often a significant problem. We should worry. But actually, we will build a very good response system. We have the advantages of all the science and technology that we mention here. We've got cell phones to urge information from the general public and obtain information bent them. We have satellite maps where we will see where people are and where they're moving. 

We have advances in biology that ought to dramatically change the turnaround to seem at a pathogen to be ready to make drugs and vaccines that fit that pathogen. So we will have tools, but those tools got to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness. The best lessons, I think, on the way to get prepared again, what we do for war. 

For soldiers, we've full-time, waiting to travel. We have reserves that will scale us up to large numbers.NATO features a mobile unit that will deploy very rapidly.NATO does tons of war games to see, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics an equivalent radio frequency? So they're absolutely able to go. So those are the sorts of things we'd like to affect a plague. What are the key pieces? 

First, we'd like strong health systems in poor countries. That where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early. We need a medical reserve corps: many people who've got the training and backgrounds who are able to go, with the expertise. And then we'd like to pair those medical people with the military. taking advantage of the military ability to maneuver fast, do logistics, and secure areas.

 We need to try to simulations, germ games, not war games in order that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was wiped out us was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well. So far the score is germs: people. Finally, we'd like many advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.

 There are some big breakthroughs, a bit like the Adeno-associated virus, that might work very, very quickly. Now I don't have a specific allow what this is often ready to cost, but I'm quite sure it's extremely modest compared to the potential harm. the planet Bank estimates that if we've got a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and wed have millions and lots of deaths. 

These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. the first healthcare, the R&D, those things would reduce global health equity and make the earth more whilst well as safer. So I feel this might absolutely be a priority. There no need to panic. we cannot get to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we'd wish to urge going because time isn't on our side. In fact, if there one positive thing which can begin of the Ebola epidemic, its that it can function an early warning, a wake-up call, to urge ready. If we start now, we'll be ready for the next epidemic. 

Thank you.

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